Analysis of the dynamics of frontline losses from drones in the period from 2022 to 2025

Dynamics analytics
Published on
23.08.2025

At the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022 , drones played a supporting role in the fighting. The most notorious example of those times was the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, which worked on columns and large targets and became a symbol of the first successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To directly engage the enemy, improvised discharge systems with recycled HEUs, grenades, or even improvised explosive and incendiary devices were used.

In 2023, the situation began to change: the mass production and improvement of FPV strike drones, particularly at the unit level, made them one of the main tools of destruction. FPVs began to be used not only as drones for dropping combat units, but also for precision kamikaze strikes in difficult conditions where artillery was less effective or too visible. At the same time, anti-drone capabilities were also being developed, mainly electronic warfare (EW) systems. The advantage in this area was constantly fluctuating: from jamming the main frequencies to the introduction of new radio bands that the opposition was not yet ready for. However, against the backdrop of dwindling stocks of artillery ammunition, the percentage of drone strikes was steadily increasing.

The massive arrival at the front in 2025 of FPV drones with fiber-optic communication channels accelerated the already rapid growth in strike effectiveness. Thanks to their "optics," these drones have become virtually invulnerable to electronic warfare, which has led to the forced movement of heavy equipment to a conditionally safe distance of about 20 km. However, even today this distance is no guarantee of protection. So far, neither side has any effective means of countering these systems, and their dominance on the battlefield is only growing.

‍Currentchallenges

According to one of the medical frontline stations in a difficult area, FPV drones are currently causing the most injuries - and more than half of them are due to strikes on vehicles on the roads.

This data was published by a soldier with the call sign "Flash" in his telegram channel.

Attacks occur evenly throughout the day, but peak in the morning. This makes it clear that the priority of technological countermeasures is to protect logistics routes from drones.

Development prospects and possible countermeasures

1. Massive use of mobile and stationary systems for destroying or capturing drones, autonomous micro-air defense.

2. Frequently change logistics routes, observe camouflage, and set up protected areas.

3. Increase the production of our own FPV drones, and accordingly increase the number of our own operators working to destroy the enemy.